碳中和驱动下的全球风电发展稀土需求

 通过物质流分析方法，预测了世界10个主要国家和地区到2040年风电发展的稀土需求，研判了技术进步、回收等因素对稀土供需格局的影响，探究了碳中和背景下中国稀土产业的优势和面临的问题。结果显示：（1）碳中和气候目标将带来全球稀土资源需求的快速扩张，约是既定政策下稀土需求的2倍；（2）全球风电发展将导致稀土面临供不应求的压力，风机材料技术进步及稀土回收可缓解稀土供应压力；（3）未来20年中国在全球稀土产业链中仍将占据主导地位，但也面临着全球稀土供应多元化的竞争和挑战，澳大利亚、缅甸、越南等地将成为中国以外的主要稀土供应地区。建议中国积极统筹国内国外“2种资源”“2个市场”，充分利用稀土冶炼加工产业集聚的优势，加强高能性能磁材及其关联产业的科技竞争力，并加快推动稀土永磁回收产业链建设。

Analysis of rare earth demand for global wind power development under carbon neutrality

To clarify the rare earth demand growth driven by global rapid expansion of wind power under carbon neutrality and make the rare earth resource strategic planning for wind power development, this paper intends to predict global 10 major countries and regions' rare earth demand for wind power development by 2040 through material flow analysis, studies the implications of technology progress and recycling on rare earth supply and demand structure, and explores the advantages and issues of China's rare earth industry under carbon neutrality. Our results show that: 1) carbon neutrality climate target will bring about a rapid expansion of global demand for rare earth elements, which is about twice that under the stated policies; 2) global wind power development will lead to severe rare earth supply pressure, and material technology progress and recycling will play important roles in alleviating this pressure; 3) China will still occupy a leading position in the global rare earth industry chain in the next 20 years, but face competition and challenges from global diversified rare earth suppliers, such as Australia, Myanmar, Vietnam, North America, etc. We propose that China should coordinate "two resources" and "two markets" at home and abroad, make full use of the advantages of rare earth processing industry agglomeration, strengthen technological competitiveness of highperformance magnet materials and their related industries, and accelerate the construction of rare earth permanent magnet recycling industrial chain.