火灾系统的复杂性与可持续防治

火灾系统即火灾和它的影响因素构成的整体，它是一个复杂系统。本文介绍了火灾系统复杂性的研究。森林火灾的分布满足较好的幂律分布，并且具有尺度不变性和时间不变性，实际的火灾数据与自组织临界性森林火灾模型的计算和 分析结果相互符合，这表明森林火灾系统是一个自组织临界性系统。当考虑降水、森林尺度等更多火灾影响因素时，森林火灾模型的计算结果与实际数据符合得更好。对实际火灾数据的分析表明，城市火灾的分布同样满足具有时间不变性和尺度不变性的稳定的幂律分布。稳定的幂律分布对于火灾防治具有实际意义，当获得了足够多的火灾历史数据时，可以预测未来的火灾发生情况，可以利用小火灾的发生情况预测大火灾的发生概率，利用自组织临界性森林火灾模型，可以评估火灾防治措施的长期效果。

COMPLEXITY AND PERSISTENT PREVENTION OF FIRE DISASTERS

Fire system, which is composed of fire and its effect factors, is a complex system. In this paper, the recent studies on fire complexity are introduced. The frequency-size distribution of forest fire satisfies a power law relation that is invariant with time and system size. Actual forest fire data accords well with the simulation and calculation results of the forest-fire model, indicating that the forest fire system is a self-organized critical system. If more effect factors such as precipitation and forest scale are considered, the forest-fire model gets better accordance with actual forest fire data. The city fire data is also found satisfying power-law relation invariant with system size and time. A steady power-law relation has practical implications. The future fire distribution can be forecasted by enough historical fire data, the occurrence probabilities of large fires can be calculated by those of small fires, and the forest-fire model can be used to assess the long-term performance of fire protection policies.