我国近50年旱涝灾害时空变化及监测预警服务

本文根据近50年来旱涝灾害灾情统计资料，分析了我国干旱、洪涝灾害的时空分布特征及其变化趋势。统计结果是表明：近50年来，特别是20世纪80年代以来，受全球气候变化的影响，我国降水呈现南方偏多、北方偏少的变化趋势，致使我国干旱灾害发生频率增加的同时洪涝灾害也不断增加，农作物受灾和成灾面积增加趋势明显，损失日趋严重。此外，为做好防灾减灾服务，及时向政府有关单位提供旱涝监测实况信息，国家气候中心自1995年开始开发了实时逐日早涝监测预警系统。该系统利用全国600个基本气象站点的降水量、气温、湿度等气象观测资料和未来7天降水预报资料进行统计，确定气象干旱监测、预警指标，并结合气象部门农业气象站土壤湿度监测资料和卫星遥感干旱监测结果，发布《中国旱涝气候公报》，为政府有关部门和社会公众服务。

THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL FEATURES OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD DISASTERS IN THE PAST 50 YEARS AND MONITORING AND WARNING SERVICES IN CHINA

In the context of statistic data of drought and flood disasters in the past 50 years, the spatial and temporal features of drought and flood disasters and their changing tendencies were analyzed. The result shows in the past 50 years , particularly starting from 1980s. the precipitation has been increasing in the east of China while the precipitation has been decreasing in the north of China. When the frequency of drought increased, the flood also increased. The crop areas stricken and affected by drought and flood increased clearly and economic losses became huger and huger. In order to prevent and mitigate disasters and provide timely drought and flood monitoring information to government and users, National Climate Center has been developing the daily drought and flood monitoring and warning system since 1995.The operational system has set up the drought monitoring and warning index, based on the meteorological observation data from 600 stations in China and forecast data with 7 days in advance. Based on the index and the soil moisture observed by agricultural and meteorological stations and drought result from satellite remote sensing into account, the Monitoring Bulletin of Drought and Flood in China are released for relative departments of the government and the public.