2009年北京市甲型H1N1流行的气象因子与时空传播风险

 2009年8月初，甲型H1N1逐步在北京市本地人群中大范围传播扩散。实验室检测表明，甲型H1N1阳性病例占流感样病例的比例（从0.0086到0.7035）呈逐步上升趋势。本研究利用相关性统计分析方法，探索了2009年8月3日—11月8日甲型H1N1阳性率和4个气象因子（气温、相对湿度、降水量、风速）之间的关联关系。结果表明，甲型H1N1阳性率与气温的相关系数为-0.9458（P<0.05），甲型H1N1阳性率与相对湿度的相关系数为-0.4581（P<0.1），干冷环境下的甲型H1N1阳性率显著偏高。本研究构建了利用气温和相关湿度估算甲型H1N1阳性率的逻辑斯谛模型，反演得到了北京市每个区县每天的甲型H1N1阳性率，分析了北京市甲型H1N1流行的时空传播风险。

Weather Conditions and Spatio-Temporal Spreading Risk of the Beijing 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Epidemic

In early August 2009, influenza A(H1N1) started to spread widely among the local residents in Beijing. H1N1 test results indicate that the percentage of H1N1 infections among all out-patient influenza-like illnesses rose steadily from 0.0086 to 0.7035. Using statistical correlation analysis, we have studied the relationship between H1N1 cases and four weather conditions including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and wind speed. The correlation between H1N1 positive rate and temperature is significant, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.9458(P<0.05). At the significant level of 0.1, the correlation between H1N1 positive rate and relative humidity is significant as well, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.4581. H1N1 positive rate in dry and cold environment is significantly higher. Furthermore, we have constructed a logistic regression model to predict H1N1 positive rate from temperature and relative humidity and identified the spatio-temporal spreading risk of the Beijing 2009 influenza A(H1N1) Epidemic.