“一带一路”地区地震区划和防震减灾对策研究

 “一带一路”地区面积辽阔，活动构造分布广泛，大地震频繁发生。介绍了“一带一路”地区的潜在震源区划分模型、地震活动性模型、地震动衰减关系模型和场地调整方法，在“一带一路”地区开展了概率地震危险性计算，给出了全区50年超越概率10%的峰值加速度（PGA）分布的地震区划图，并提出不同地震危险性地区防震减灾对策建议。研究表明，东亚和东南亚西部、太平洋西岸、中亚南部、西亚东部、欧洲南部和非洲东部是“一带一路”地区地震危险性较高的地区，在50年超越概率10%的PGA>0.4的地区，一般民用建筑应采取地震烈度九度设防。

Seismic hazard mapping and earthquake disaster mitigation measures in the Belt and Road areas

The Belt and Road area is vast, with a wide distribution of active seismogenic structures and frequent earthquakes. The seismic hazard assessment and the seismic hazard mapping in this area are of great significance in the earthquake prevention of buildings and the disaster mitigation design of engineering facilities. This paper analyzes the seismogenic source area division model, the seismicity model, the ground motion attenuation relationship model and the site adjustment method in the Belt and Road area. The probabilistic seismic hazard calculation is carried out in the area, and the seismic hazard map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years is obtained, and the countermeasures for the earthquake prevention and the disaster mitigation in different seismic hazard areas are proposed. It is shown that the East and Southeast Asia, the western Pacific Ocean, the southern Central Asia, the eastern West Asia, the southern Europe and the eastern Africa are areas with a high seismic hazard in the Belt and Road regions. In the area with the PGA larger than 0.4 with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, the general civil buildings should be equipped with the capacity to resist a seismic intensity of 9 degrees.