中国适宜发展生物液体燃料的边际土地资源分析

 在能源短缺和环境污染压力日益紧迫的背景下，生物液体燃料以其清洁、低碳、可再生性逐渐成为重要的替代能源之一。中国人多地少，在边际土地上种植非粮能源作物是发展生物液体燃料的有效途径。以中国生物液体燃料的3种主要原料作物（燃料乙醇原料甜高粱、木薯和生物柴油原料油菜）为研究对象，利用多因子综合分析法和动态阈值法评估适宜其发展的边际土地（包括宜能荒地和冬闲田）资源量并探究优化发展模式，为合理规划能源植物种植和产业布局提供数据支持。研究结果表明： 2015年，中国适宜甜高粱和木薯种植的宜能荒地面积分别为3463.67万ha和1232.82万ha，适宜油菜种植的冬闲田面积为1995.16万ha；在优化发展模式下，中国适宜生物液体燃料原料作物种植的边际土地面积可达5997.71万ha。

Anglysis of the marginal land resources suitable for developing liquid biofuel in China

In view of the shortage of fossil energy and the environmental pollution, the clean, low-carbon and renewable liquid biofuel offers as an important alternative of the fossil fuel. For the huge population and the limited cultivated land resources, it is necessary to develop non-grain energy crops on a marginal land to produce the liquid biofuel in China. The marginal land resources for three representative raw crops including the sweet sorghum, the cassava and the rape are estimated in this paper. The multi-factor analysis method and the dynamic threshold method are adopted to evaluate the marginal land resources. An optimized non-grain planting mode is to be adopted in order to provide an important support for planning the cultivation of the non-grain energy plants and the liquid biofuel industry. It is shown that the area of the marginal land resources suitable for the sweet sorghum, the cassava planting and the winter fallow fields suitable for the rape planting in China are about 34.69, 21.66, 19.95 million ha, respectively. The total area of the marginal land suitable for the development of the liquid biofuel is about 59.98 million ha.