进入21世纪的气候变化科学--气候变化的事实、影响与对策

近百年来，地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化，我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。近50年的气候变暖主要是人类使用化石燃料排放的大量二氧化碳等温室气体的增温效应造成的。现有的预测表明，未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。国际上，目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》正在就如何减缓这种气候变暖的趋势和控制温室气体排放进行谈判。本文依据IPCC第三次评估报告与国内外最新的研究成果，说明气候变化的事实与未来的可能变化，阐述冰冻圈对气候变化的响应，进而说明气候变化对生态系统和社会经济的影响，分析气候变化给我国带来的挑战和机遇并提出对策建议。

CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCES INTO THE 21st CENTURY:FACTS, IMPACT AND STRATEGIES ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE

The Earth's climate system has been experiencing a significant change characterized by global warming in the past century. The trend of climate change over China is approximately consistent with that of the globe. The climate warming in recent 50 years is mainly due to the enhanced green-house effects produced by green-house gases emission into the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuels burning. Current modeling projections indicate that the climate of China and the globe will continue to be warmer in the coming 50 to 100 years. At the present, the world is negotiating the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on how to mitigate the climate warming and control the emission of green house gases. Firstly,IPCC TAR and the state of the art scientific advances are referred to present the facts of climate change and future possible change. The responses of Cryosphere to climate change are summarized in the second section. The third section addresses the impact of climate change on ecosystem and socio-economy and the challenges and opportunities to China derived from climate change are analyzed in the fourth section, followed by the strategies addressing climate change.