修正的布龙-戴维斯森林火险气象指数模型在中国的适用性

 利用国家气象信息中心提供的2005-2014年中国基本、基准、一般气象站的历史观测资料，建立了基于布龙-戴维斯方案的修正森林火险气象指数模型，制定森林火险气象等级划分标准，利用国家林业和草原局提供的对应全国林火、灌木火逐日次数统计进行验证，并结合实例进行效果检验。结果表明：修正后的森林火险气象指数在5大区域的春、秋季均为高值期，这与国家林业和草原局制定的重点防火服务季节大体一致，指示性较好；在中国三大森林防火气象服务重点区（东北、华南、西南林区），修正后的森林火险气象指数实际森林火灾次数相关度较高，2017年内蒙古林火实例分析说明适用性较高。

Applicability of forest fire danger weather index model based on modified Brown-Davis method

Based on the observations of the national principal stations, the basic stations and the ordinary stations from 2005 to 2014 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center, a forest fire danger weather index model is built with the modified Brown-Davis method and the forest fire danger weather grade is established. They are verified by the corresponding daily frequency statistics of the forest and shrub fires, provided by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA), combined with the case study and it is shown that the modified forest fire danger weather index is indicative for its values of five regions are higher in spring and autumn, as is consistent with the major fire prevention season set by the NFGA. In the three key forest fire-prevention regions of the meteorological service, namely, the northeast, the south and the southwest forest regions, the modified forest fire weather index has a high correlation with the forest fire frequency. The applied analysis of the forest fire in Inner Mongolia province in 2017 shows a high applicability of the index model.