集合预报初值扰动在天气预报中的应用研究进展

对提高数值模式天气预报准确率和可用度,单个模式往往难以达到理想的目的,故常采用集合方法.例如,将模式的初值进行扰动后集合,或者将不同的预报结果集合,甚至运用多模式开展集合预报等.本文着重介绍集合预报初值扰动的应用研究情况,重点阐述目前最先进、最流行的两种方法--奇异向量法和增长模繁殖法.集合初值扰动研究近年取得了丰硕成果,也涌现了一些新的初值扰动方法.但很多问题仍有待解决,例如对初始场误差的进一步认识、误差的离散度还不够大、离散速度还不够快、更有效的扰动生成方法有待出现等.最后,对初值扰动的应用研究进行了展望.

Advances in Researches and Applications of Ensemble Prediction with Initial Perturbation

Advances in researches and operational applications of initial ensemble predictions are briefly reviewed.Over the past many years the ensemble prediction has become a major element in defining the future of numerical weather prediction and operational weather forecasting.In this paper,the basic concepts,important issues and recent developments of ensemble forecasting system are discussed.Besides weather forecasting,the ensemble technique is also applied to observation and data assimilation.The growing model breeding method and the singular vector method are specially adressed.The recent development in ensemble forecasting in China is included,and it is indicated that further studies on ensemble forecasting are necessary.Finally,the directions of development and the prospects of applications of ensemble forecasting are pointed out.