中国煤层气产业战略效益影响因素分析

 煤层气产业战略效益是指煤层气产业发展对经济社会的整体贡献,本文从国家能源供需趋势和煤层气产业自身发展条件两个方面对其影响因素进行了讨论.影响中国煤层气产业发展及其战略效益的宏观因素包括经济状况、煤炭生产、洁净能源生产和环境保护三大方面,未来的经济状况是一个不确定因素,未来能源需求注定持续增长,发展新能源和低碳技术将刺激天然气(含煤层气)生产和消费大幅度增长.就细观层次而言,煤层气产量是产业战略效益的核心考量,受到煤层气资源条件及其探明程度、抽采方式与抽采技术、资金投入等因素的影响.中国的煤层气资源非常丰富,但资源探明程度低,煤层气地质条件复杂,既有战略效益释放的巨大空间,又对开发技术创新提出了更高的要求.抽采技术发展水平决定着煤层气产业战略效益可实现的程度,研发重点在于围绕提高煤层气地面单井产量和矿井抽采率两个核心,发展适用于各类地质条件的开发技术.煤层气开发前期投资大,投资风险高,资金回收期长,需从国家层面完善鼓励政策,构建多元化投融资平台.

Factors Affecting the Strategic Benefits of CBM Industry in China

The strategic benefits of the coal bed methane (CBM) industry involve the overall contribution of the CBM industry development to the economy and thr community in general, and the factors influencing the benefits are discussed in the lights of the national energy supply-demand tendency and the conditions for the CBM industry development. Macroeconomic factors affecting the development and its strategic benefits of CBM industry in China include the economic situation, the coal production, the clean energy production and the environmental protection The future economic situation is uncertain, the future energy demand is in a continued growth, and the development of new energy and low-carbon technologies will stimulate the substantial growth of the natural gas (including CBM) production and consumption. As far as the micro-level is concerned, the CBM production is a key for the assessment of the industry strategic benefits, which is affected by the CBM resources and its proven degree, the CBM-extracting method and the technology, the capital investment and so on. The CBM resources in China are very rich but the proven resources are at a low level and in complex geological conditions, indicating a huge potential of the strategic benefit release and the high requirements for the innovation of CBM extracting technologies. The level of the technological development determines the degree of the strategic benefit realization of the CBM industry, the technological research and development should focus on the improvements of both the CBM production of the surface wells and the mine drainage in order to develop CBM-extracting technologies applicable to various types of geological conditions. The CBM development requires a high upfront investment and involves a high investment risk, and a long payback period, which requires a diversified investment and financing platform supported by the national policies.