鲁中山区地质灾害的气候特征分析

 利用1950—2010年鲁中山区的地质灾害资料,对61a来鲁中山区地质灾害的气候特征进行了分析。结果表明,(1) 鲁中山区发生地质灾害主要集中在7月中旬至8月中旬,其中7月中旬出现频数最高,是发生地质灾害的主要旬份,鲁中山区地质灾害主要以暴雨型地质灾害为主;(2) 鲁中山区出现泥石流、滑坡多发区在鲁中山区南部和西部一带,其中尤以南部为最多,鲁中山区的泥石流滑坡在6—8月有逐月向北推进的趋势;(3) 鲁中山区发生地质灾害的年代际变化明显,20世纪60年代和90年代为地质灾害多发生期,80年代和50年代为地质灾害少发生期,近61a来鲁中山区存在显著的10—15a的年代际尺度和3—6a年际尺度的周期变化;(4) 鲁中山区中南部在大暴雨情况下发生地质灾害的可能性大,西南部、中东部在大雨以上情况下发生地质灾害的可能性大。降水时间、空间分布与地质灾害关系密切,发生地质灾害日不同雨量等级与前期降水条件的相关性较大。

The Climatic Characteristics of Geological Calamity in the Mountainous Area of the Middle Part of Shandong Province

Based on the geological calamity data in the mountainous area of the middle part of Shandong Province from 1950 to 2010, the climatic characteristics of geological calamity are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) The geological calamity in the mountainous area of the middle part of Shandong Province occurs from the middle of July to August, mostly in the middle period of July.The geological calamity is mainly of rainstorm type. (2) Frequently-occurring areas of the debris flow and landslip are located in the south and the west of the middle mountainous area of Shandong Province, mostly in the south .There is a trend that the location of the landslip monthly moves from the south to the north in June—August. (3) Its inter-decadal variation is obvious. The period that more geological calamities would occur is in the 1960s and the 1990s and the period that less geological calamities would occur is in the 1980s and the 1950s.The marked periodic variation of every 10—15 years and 3—6 years is found. (4) There is a great possibility for the geological calamity occurring if it is a severe heavy rain in the middle-south, a heavy rain or even just a rainfall of over 30mm may trigger a landslip in the southwest and the middle-east of the middle mountainous area of Shandong Province. Besides, the rainfall distribution in time and space is intimately related with the geological calamity. The intensity of the rainfall in the day that the geological calamity occurs is closely related to the preceding-rainfall.