以重化工业为特征的发展模式的代价

通过能源消费和电力消费弹性系数以及设计的SO2排放弹性系数，考察近几年我国经济增长的能源成本与环境代价；利用统计数据考察了我国部分重化工业行业的总产出和单位产出的能源消耗及污染物排放情况，得出近年来我国的经济增长是建立在能源高消耗和环境高污染的基础上，特别是一些重化工行业的能耗和污染物排放总量以及单位产出能耗和污染物排放尤其严重的结论；由此引出对我国的经济发展模式进行反思，对发展重化工业的驱动力提出疑问，希望从一个侧面探讨经济发展政策和发展模式对全国性能源紧缺和环境污染加重的影响。

Cost and Loss of Developing Heavy and Chemical Industries in China

This paper focuses on energy cost and environmental loss of keeping rapid economic growth and developing heavy and chemical industries in China. It designs and calculates elasticity ratio of SO2 emission, and then investigates that ratio and elasticity ratios of energy and electricity consuption from 1999 to 2003 by official statistical data. It also investigates energy consumption and pollutant emissions in per GDP unit, and in per value-added unit of industrial sectors concerned in 2003. The results show that energy especially electricity growth rate and some pollutant emission growth rate, in most years, were higher than GDP growth rate during the period, and also some heavy and chemical industries consumed much more energy and discharged much more pollutants. It also compares China's energy and environmental data with that in some other countries, tries to recognize the improving space of energy use and environment for China's future development,and asks some questions on economic developing pattern in China.