CO2减排情景下中国能源发展若干问题

全球应对气候变化对中国社会经济发展带来越来越大的压力。按中国目前大力推进节能和优化能源结构的战略,到2020年能源消费和相应CO2排放仍会有较快增长,其后尽管增长速度放缓,但2050年前尚不能实现CO2排放的零增长。如果采取强力措施力图到2030年左右实现CO2排放零增长,并考虑改善国家能源安全,降低石油供应的对外依存度,除超常规发展低碳能源供应技术外,尚需大力发展与清洁煤发电相结合的碳埋存技术和煤基液态燃料,但这将降低能源系统的效率并导致能源总需求量的上升,同时也会大幅提高能源供应系统的成本。面对日益紧迫的全球减排温室气体形势,中国需要对外努力争取合理的碳排放空间,对内则应积极应对,大力推进能源领域的技术创新,尽快形成核能、风能、生物质发电和纤维素乙醇等低碳能源技术的大规模产业化的体系,为全球减缓温室气体排放做出积极贡献。

Energy Issues Faced by China in the Scenario of CO2 Mitigation

Global efforts to addressing climate changes are imposing heavier and heavier pressure on China's social and economic development. Currently China is taking strategic measures to promote energy conservation and optimize energy supply structure. However, China's energy consumption and the associated CO2 emission will be increasing with a high speed. Although the increase of energy consumption and CO2 emission will slow down after 2020, CO2 growth rate will still be positive until 2050. If intensive mitigation measures are adopted in order to achieve a zero growth of CO2 emission around 2030 together with reducing reliance of oil supply on overseas market to a great extent, substantial efforts should be made to develop and deploy carbon capture and storage technologies and coal-based liquid fuels for transportation in addition to introducing low carbon energy technologies at a faster-than-ever speed, leading to decreased efficiency of the energy supply system, an increase of primary energy supply, and soaring of energy service cost. Facing with increasingly urgent global efforts for mitigating climate changes, China should strive to obtain a reasonable permitted margin for CO2 emission from the world community on one hand and take great efforts to develop and deploy low carbon energy technologies, such as nuclear, wind, biomass power generation, and cellulose-based ethnol, on the other hand.