采空区顶板事故动态贝叶斯模型

 在采空区危害中，顶板破坏是主要灾害事故之一，一旦发生塌陷事故影响恶劣。本文在对采空区顶板事故进行事故树分析法（FTA）定性分析的基础上，采用贝叶斯网络转化的方法对采空区顶板事故树进行转化，建立采空区顶板事故贝叶斯网络模型，同时采用基于Matlab的BNT软件包进行定量计算，无需确定权重，对先验概率和后验概率结果对比分析，得出影响采空区的主要因素，认为采空区顶板事故发生的条件概率中，施工人员未按照设计开采和支护不当的重要度最大，因此在实际施工过程中，施工人员必须严格按照设计开采，加强支护，以确保采空区顶板稳定。

Dynamic Bayesian Models for Gob Roof Accidents

The roof damage is one of the major cause of hazards in the gob in case of collapse accidents. In the stability analysis of the mined area on the roof with multi-objective evaluation and decision analysis, the extensive use is made of analytic hierarchy process, utility function method, and fuzzy membership function method. Among a variety of objectives, a complex relationship often makes the use of these analysis methods very difficult, especially in determining the weight factors of the objectives, which would affect the application of these methods. In the context of the gob roof accident and the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), the qualitative analysis based on Bayesian network is transformed by the method of the gob roof fault tree transformation, to establish the gob roof accident Bayesian network model, with the use of packages based on Matlab BNT quantitative calculation, In this way, it is necessary to determine weights and the prior probability and the posterior probability are used in comparison and analysis of the gob to identify the main factors related to the gob roof accidents in the conditional probability, with the construction workers not working in accordance with the design and improper exploitation and support being of the greatest importance, therefore, in the actual construction process, the construction workers must strictly follow the design of mining, to enhance support to ensure the stability of the gob roof.