雾天高速公路网行程时间可靠性评价方法

为有效评价区域高速公路网布局的合理性,基于对雾天影响下高速公路网行程时间可靠性的研究,寻求路网中的关键路段,并以此作为改善和优化公路交通网络的依据。通过对网络运行时间可靠性和雾源分布随机性的分析,提出高速公路网路段单元的行程时间可靠性的综合评价模型。并结合用户平衡模型和串并联理论,构建高速公路网络系统的时间可靠度计算模型。利用Matlab工具箱对随机雾源进行模拟仿真,结合MonteCarlo方法求解模型,以评价随机雾天高速公路网的行程时间可靠性,最后通过实例验证说明了该方法可以合理地评价随机雾源影响下路网的行程时间可靠性,并有效地找出路网中受雾影响最明显的关键路段。

Reliability evaluation on travel time in freeway network under fog environment influence

To assess the ratio nality o f reg ional freew ay netw ork lay out , based o n the reliability analysis of the netw ork and the r andomness analy sis o f the fo g center, a comprehensive t ravel t ime reliability model w as set up w hich combined the inf luence of fog environment and the uncertain demand. T he user equilibrium formula and series-parallel theo ry were adopted to impr ove the tr av el time rel iability mo del for the entire arter ial f reew ay netw or k. Furthermo re, Mat lab too lbo x w as utilized to simulate random fog , and Monte Carlo method w as applied to solv e the model under fog environment . A simple numerical example w as used to illust rate the applicability. Experimental result s indicate that this metho d can be reasonable to evaluate the reliability o f the f reew ay netw ork under stochastic fog inf luence and is capable to ident ify the most vulner able sect ions o f the netw o rk