近海水环境早期预警模型及其应用

为实现对近岸海域水环境质量状况的早期预警，构建了近海水环境早期预警模型。首先在布点优化过程中，提出了模糊物元分析法与k-means空间聚类算法相结合的方法，以突出区域监测站位的水环境状态特征，同时兼顾监测站位的空间地理位置等因素；其次，采用突变级数法，以分叉集方程的归一化公式，计算优化监测站位的水环境质量突变状态值，避免了模型中的人为赋值等不确定因素。应用所建模型，选择江苏近海水环境为实例进行预警分析，结果表明，各站位的预警值与水质评价结果一致，验证了模型的合理性。

Early warning model of coastal water environment and its application

To achieve early warning of water quality status in coastal ocean, the early warning model of coastal water environment was established. Firstly, the fussy matter element method combined with k means clustering algorithm was proposed in the stationing optimization. By this method, the state of water environment feature in the regional monitoring stations was highlighted, and the space location of the monitoring stations was also considered. Secondly, the catastrophe progression method was adopted. The quality mutation status values of water environment of the optimized monitoring stations were calculated by the normalization assessment of bifurcate equation. Thus, the uncertainty factors such as artificial assignment can be avoided, and the accuracy of the warning results is improved. Finally, the model was applied to the water environment warning of Jiangsu coastal zone, and the rationality and the feasibility of the model are verified.