故障树分析方法在油气管线方面的应用

故障树分析法 (Fault Tree Analysis)是分析大型复杂系统安全性与可靠性的一种较好的方法 .文中利用该方法对油气管线进行了失效分析 .通过考虑引起管线失效的主要原因 :泄漏、断裂以及其他造成泄漏和断裂的主要因素 ,建立了管线失效的故障树 .结合 VB编程并采用下行法(Fussell)求出了系统的全部 42个最小割集 ,并求出了管线的失效概率和基本事件的概率重要度和临界重要度 .从定性与定量两方面探讨了引起管线失效的基本原因 .通过对系统的故障树分析发现 ,引起管线失效的主要原因是第三方破坏、腐蚀、误操作和材料缺陷等 ,并提出了相应的改进措施

Application of Fault Tree Analysis to the Failure Analysis of Oil and Gas Pipelines

Fault tree analysis is an effective way to analyze safety and reliability of a large complex system. Using this method, the failure of oil and gas pipelines is discussed. The fault tree of oil and gas pipelines is established by considering two major failure modes of pipelines: leaking and rupture. All the minimal cut sets (MCS) are got by Fussell calculation. They are composed of 21 first order MCSs, and 21 fourth MCSs. The basic factors is investigated that cause failure of pipelines through qualitative and quantitative analyses. By analyzing the fault tree of pipelines and its minimal cut sets, it is found that external interference from the third party, corrosion, incorrect operation and material defects are the major reasons to cause the failure of pipelines. And this paper gives some relevant improvement measures. the pipelines. The results of fault tree analysis show that this method can provide some theoretical guides for maintenance of old pipelines and design of new pipelines.