基于基因遗传算法对畸形外囊菌在中国适生区的分析

调查了104个畸形外囊菌（Taphrina deformans（Berk）Tul）的发生地,并通过基因遗传算法（GARP）模型对畸形外囊菌在中国的适生情况进行了预测.实验中采用受试者工作特征曲线（简称ROC曲线）中的曲线下面积（AUC）的大小评估模型预测的准确性,所得AUC值为0.89,表明诊断价值较高.预测结果表明畸形外囊菌在中国的适生区主要分布在东部地区：河北南部、山西南部、广东南部、山东全部、河南全部、安徽全部、江苏全部、上海全部、浙江全部、海南全部、福建大部分、江西大部分、台湾西部沿海、云南东部、湖北东部和湖南东部.

A study of the potential distribution of taphrina deformans in China based on the GARP model

It was investigated 104 occurrence locations and the GARP model was used to predict the potential distribution of Taphrina deformans in China.The AUC value under ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of GARP model.The AUC value was 0.89,considered as a relatively high diagnosis.The results showed that,the main region was in the east part of China: south parts of Hebei,Shanxi and Guangdong provinces,whole parts of Shandong,Henan,Anhui,Jiangsu,Shanghai and Zhejiang provinces,most parts of Fujian and Jiangxi provinces,west coast of Taiwan region,and east parts of Yunnan,Hubei and Hunan provinces.The results presented would be helpful for determing and preventing of T.deformans.