电力负荷预测群体决策及组合预测

负荷预测是电力系统规划中的重要组成部分，通过各种预测方法所得预测结果都会不同．如何选取和推荐预测结果，则需要规划人员对预测进行评价、论证和决策．为了将预测的评价和决策过程量化计算，通过选定分析和评价的定量和定性指标，建立了预测决策的层次分析结构，采用模糊标度构建专家及其群体评价矩阵，计算所有预测方法及指标的特征向量，确定预测排序及其权重，组合负荷预测并推荐决策结果．应用程序及实例表明，该方法避免了主观性，使决策过程更加科学、规范量化和简洁实用．

Group Decision-making for Load Forecast and Its Combined Forecasting

The load forecasts calculated by various methods are dependent on the planning of electrical power system. The planners and decision-makers will evaluate and choose the final forecasting result. The evaluation and decision are treated as calculation quantities in this paper. The quantitive and qualitative criteria that affect the load forecast are selected for analysis and evaluation. A hierarchy structure is established and fuzzy complementary judgment matrixes in each hierarchy are formed from the expert group. The eigenvectors of all forecasting methods and criteria are calculated using its general formula and are regarded as weight coefficient in combined forecasting. The combined forecast results are commended. This approach has been programmed and used in the decision-making support system of electrical planning. The test shows that it is practical,succinct and objective and make the decision more scientific,standard and quantitive.