基于元胞自动机的可修复网络系统可靠性评估模型

为了实时有效评估可修复网络系统的可靠性,克服枚举法的状态空间爆炸问题和马尔科夫过程分析只针对一种系统结构的缺陷,提出了一种基于元胞自 动机的网络系统可靠性评估模型?该模型从节点的内在失效概率和网络结构角度,建立元胞自动机的邻域和状态转移函数,提出可修复网络系统演化模型;在离散演化周期内,利用元胞自动机的传播特性算法定期检测系统的瞬时可靠性,累积得到可修复网络系统的近似稳态可靠性?该模型结合解析法和模拟法优点,得到与时间相关的可修复系统稳态可靠性?该算法分别与状态枚举法?蒙特卡罗法进行仿真对比,仿真结果表明,该方法可准确描述可修复网络系统的稳态可靠性,该方法也适用于其他大规模可修复系统可靠性评估?

Reliability evaluation model of repairable system based on cellular automata

To conduct real-time and effective evaluation about reliability of repairable network system,and to overcome state explosion problem of state enumeration method and defect of Markov process analysis for a given system structure,a kind of network reliability model based on cellular automata is presented.Based on the perspective of inherent failure probability and network structure of node,this model establishes the transition function on neighborhood and state of cellular automata,and an evolution model of repairable network system is proposed.By propagation characteristic algorithm of cellular automata to regularly detect instantaneous reliability of system in discrete evolution period,and then approximate steady reliability can be obtained.Besides combining the merits of analytic method and simulation method,this model can arrive at steady-state reliability related to time of repairable system.Numerical experiments respectively compared with the state enumeration method and Monte Carlo method prove that this model could describe steady=state of repairable network system accurately,which would be also suitable for reliability assessment of other large-scale repairable systems.