城市生态规划中的不确定性分析

城市生态规划中的不确定性主要包括规划过程引起的不确定性以及决策分析中的不确定性.通过采用灵敏度分析法、误差传递函数法、控制论方法等不确定性理论和方法进行定量分析,减小城市生态规划中不确定性,在此基础上,提出"弹性规划"的构想,它包括规划目标的"弹性"和规划方案"弹性".通过限定范围消元法与范围连续扩展法优选,弹性规划使城市生态规划既能满足城市生态化水平发展的要求,又能考虑到各种不确定性因素的制约.

Analysis of the Uncertainties in Urban Ecological Planning

Uncertainties in urban ecological planning mainly result from the following aspects: uncertainty in the planning process and uncertainty in decisionmaking and analysis.To decrease the uncertainties in urban ecosystem,the following theories and methodologies may be applied,such as sensitivity analysis,error transmission analysis,cybernetics approach and uncertainty mathematical methodologies,including stochastic approach,fuzzy approach,grey system approach and unascertained mathematical approach.Based on the above analysis,this paper proposed the idea of "flexible planning",which includes the flexibility of planning objectives and that of planning schemes.Based on optimum seeking methods such as the isolation of dimensions,the elimination of alternatives and the continuous increase of dimensionality,the goal of the planning can both meet the requirements of the development of urban ecological level and take into account the restrictions of various uncertainty factors.