重复购买与市场变化下产品扩散实证研究

重复购买以及市场环境变化对产品扩散有影响作用,从而限制了基本产品扩散模型的应用.通过构建反映动态市场变化的环境变量集合,基于影响系数对产品扩散模型做出修正,同时考虑重复购买因素,得到重复购买与市场变化下的产品扩散模型.以我国汽车产品细分市场之一的微型交叉型乘用车产品扩散为实例,将超过使用年限后的重复购买因素与市场的燃油价格、产品价格、宏观政策等因素作为修正变量融入扩散模型,分析目标产品的扩散规律.研究结果表明,加入重复购买与动态市场因素后,模型计算结果拟合度提高13%,预测结果的误差平均绝对比率由23.93降低至5.5.由此可知,提出的扩展产品扩散模型在解释能力和预测能力上均优于基本模型。

Empirical Research on the Product Diffusion with Replacement Purchase and Dynamic Market

Replacement purchase and dynamic market influence product diffusion,which limits the application of basic product diffusion model.In this paper,the dynamic market variables were constructed to reflect the changes of the market,and the extended product diffusion model was verified with influence coefficients considering replacement purchase and dynamic market factors.The mini cross-type passenger vehicle,which is one segment of China’s automobile market,was empirically studied.The factors,including fuel price,product price,policies of the government and repeated purchase,were analysed in the extended diffusion model to analyse the target product diffusion rule.The results have indicated that the fitting degree of extended model is increased by 13% over the basic model,and the mean absolute percent error is decreased from 23.93 to 5.5.Therefore,the proposed extended model with perfect fitness and forecasting accuracy shows better performance in explaining the actual diffusion rule.