车辆-行人/自行车骑车人事故死亡风险和头部动力学响应对比研究

通过对深入调查的交通事故数据进行分析和仿真,对比了中国道路交通环境下行人与自行车骑车人死亡风险和头部动力学响应的差异.从中国不同地区深入交通事故调查采集的数据中选出能估算出车辆碰撞速度且具有详细伤情记录的438例行人和自行车事故作为原始样本,利用逻辑回归分析建立了车辆碰撞速度与行人及自行车骑车人死亡风险的逻辑回归模型,分析了两者的死亡风险的差异.分别选取21例行人事故和24例自行车事故利用MADYMO软件进行了事故重建,比较了行人与自行车骑车人头部动力学响应.结果表明,车辆碰撞速度与行人和自行车骑车人死亡风险显著相关,相同车辆碰撞速度下自行车骑车人死亡的风险略低于行人.此外,行人与自行车骑车人的头部碰撞条件如头部碰撞速度和碰撞角度等也存在明显差别.此结果可为设定更加合理的中国道路车辆限速和制定有利于自行车骑车人和行人头部保护的策略提供参考.

A Comparative Study of Head Dynamic Response and Fatality Risk of Pedestrian and Bicyclist in Vehicle Collisions

The objective of this study is to compare the casualty risk of pedestrians and bicyclists in urban traffic through an analysis of real-world accident data in China. For this purpose, 438 cases were selected as samples from the accidents collected by in-depth investigation of vehicle accidents in China. A statistic measurement of the fatality risk with respect to impact speed was carried out by logistic regression analysis. Then, 21 pedestrian and 24 bicyclist accidents were further selected for reconstruction with MADYMO program. A comparative analysis was conducted on the basisi of the results from accident analysis and computer reconstructions for the fatality risk and the head dynamic response of pedestrians and bicyclists. The results have indicated that the vehicle impact speed has a significant relationship with the fatality risk of both pedestrians and bicyclists and bicyclists suffered slightly lower fatality risk compared to pedestrians. Besides, the head impact conditions such as head impact speed and impact angle between pedestrians and bicyclists are also obviously different. These findings can contribute to the setting of a more reasonable speed limit for urban traffic in China and generate strategies for bicyclist and pedestrian head protection.