| 一种货运需求预测的灰色系统模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 倪杰,范炳全,金芬,贺曙光.一种货运需求预测的灰色系统模型[J].上海理工大学学报,1991(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 倪杰 范炳全 金芬 贺曙光 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海机械学院系统工程研究所
(倪杰，范炳全，金芬)，上海机械学院系统工程研究所(贺曙光) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以上海市货运量、货运周转量的时间序列为依据,应用灰色系统模型(Grey Dynamic Model),建立了货运中长期预测模型,并提出了至2000年的预测值。经测试,1989年的预测值与实际值相比较,吻合度高达95%以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 货运需求 货运量 货运周转量 灰色系统 灰色模型 |
A GREY SYSTEM MODEL OF FREIGHT DEMAND FORECASTING |
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| Ni Jie Fan Bingquan Jin Fen He Shuguang.A GREY SYSTEM MODEL OF FREIGHT DEMAND FORECASTING[J].Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology,1991(4). |
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| Authors: | Ni Jie Fan Bingquan Jin Fen He Shuguang |
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| Institution: | Ni Jie Fan Bingquan Jin Fen He Shuguang |
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| Abstract: | Based on grey clynamic theory and the time series data of freight volume and freight turnover in shanghai, a kind of long-term and middle-term freight forecasting model is presented in this paper. The forcasting value of freight demand in 2000 is also offered here. It is found that the disagreement between forecasting value and practical value in 1989 is less than 5%. |
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| Keywords: | Freight demand Freight volume Freight turnover Grey system Grey model |
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