基于贝叶斯方法的信息系统整合风险评估研究

随着企业信息化程度不断提高,基于业务的信息系统整合是不可抗拒的,整合的风险也必然存在.针对信息系统整合的要素和过程,结合贝叶斯理论与大型企业的信息系统整合的事实,提出了基于贝叶斯方法的信息系统整合项目风险评估模型.利用某实施公司信息系统整合项目支出,对项目支出风险进行了案例分析研究,通过案例分析发现利用贝叶斯方法可以较好地评估信息系统整合风险,尤其是在具备专家经验和先验值的前提下,风险评估效果良好.

Risk Assessment of Information System Integration Based on Bayesian Method

As enterprises continue to improve the degree of information technology,business information systems integration is irresistible,however risk inheres in integration when the integration is carried out.Aiming at information systems integration for elements and processes,the risk assessment of information systems integration project by Bayesian method was proposed and the integration expenditure for risk factors was analyzed.The analysis shows that Bayesian method is perfect in assessing information system integration risk.Especially if the expertise experiences and the premise value are available in priori,the risk assessment can get good effect.