CO2的温室效应饱和度分析及其大气体积分数预测模型

通过精确的LBLRTM逐线积分模式建立CO_2体积分数变化模型,分析了CO_2的温室效应饱和度,并对未来地表温升的变化趋势进行了预测.结果表明,目前CO_2的持续排放只能使其在680cm~(-1)强吸收带中心达到饱和,而在未来相当长一段时间内,其仍将通过该吸收带的翼区以及1 000cm~(-1),1 350cm~(-1)与1 900cm~(-1)等弱吸收带对地表红外辐射表现出强烈的吸收,CO_2的温室效应还远未达到饱和;如果按照当前CO_22.2(mL/·m~(-3))/a的年排放速率,CO_2的大气体积分数将会持续增加,从而造成地表温度不断升高,到2056年,地表温升将会达到2K.

Greenhouse Effect Saturation Analysis and the Atmospheric Concentration Prediction Model of CO2

Based on the one dimensional line by line radiation transfer model (LBLRTM) and the concentration model of CO₂,the greenhouse effect saturation of CO₂ was analyzed and the coming surface temperature rise was predicted.The results show that so far as we know,the continuous emission of CO₂ has just brought about the absorption saturation at the center of the 680 cm^-1 strong absorption band,while the wing areas of the band and the weak absorption bands such as 1 000 cm^-1,1 350 cm^-1and 1 900 cm^-1are far from saturation,therefore,CO₂ still has a strong greenhouse effect during quite a long time in the future.If the emission rate of CO₂ basically remains at the current level 2.2 (mL·m^-3)/a,its atmospheric concentration would increase continuously,which would result in a surface temperature rise of 2 K by 2056.