基于养老保险对我国延迟退休时机选择的研究

随着我国人口老龄化趋势的加重,养老保险基金未来收支平衡面临巨大的压力,政府部门将实施延迟退休政策.首先通过人口结构理论和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,建立我国社会养老保险基金的合理支出水平模型;再通过建立我国居民养老金支出总额预测模型和我国国内生产总值预测模型,得到我国社会养老保险基金的实际支出水平预测模型;最后围绕养老保险基金的实际支付水平应趋近于养老保险基金的合理支付水平这一逻辑中心,解决实施延迟退休政策的核心问题:哪一年开始实施延迟退休政策.通过分析验证,提出对延迟退休政策相关问题的建议.

Choice of Deferred Retirement Timing Based on the Endowment Insurance in China

With the increasing trend of China''s aging population,the balance of endowment insurance found payments will face enormous pressure in the future and the government sector will implement a deferred retirement policy.A reasonable expenditure level model of China''s social endowment insurance fund was proposed according to the theory of population structure and Cobb Douglas production function.Through the establishment of China''s residents endowment expenditure forecast model and GDP forecast model,the actual expenditure level prediction model for the China''s social pension insurance fund was provided.Following the point of view that the actual payment level of the endowment insurance fund should be close to its reasonable payment level,the core issue in what year the deferred retirement policy would begin to implement was solved.Through the analysis and verification,some suggestions were put forward on the related problems of the deferred retirement policy.