延迟退休政策对我国劳动力就业的影响研究

基于2004—2014年的统计数据,首先从宏观角度分析了延迟退休对我国劳动力就业的影响,其次将我国就业人口分为青年、中年、老年3组,通过对面板数据进行检验并建立多元回归模型来验证老年人对中年、青年劳动力就业是否存在挤出效应.结果显示:延迟退休可以促进经济增长并带动就业岗位增加,但在劳动供给有一定弹性的条件下,延迟退休年龄会对部分潜在的劳动者产生挤出效应;短期内,延迟退休对青年组就业存在某种程度的挤出效应,但影响效果并不明显,延迟退休对中年组就业的影响不显著.因此,总体来看延迟退休对劳动力就业的影响不显著.

Effects of Delay Retirement Policy on the Labor Employment in Our Country

The impact of delay retirement on the labor employment in China was analyzed from a macroscopic angle based on the statistical data of 2004~2014.The employment population of China can be divided into three groups,the elderly group,middle-age group and youth group.A regression model was built to verify whether there is a real crowding-out effect between the elderly labor force and working-age labor force by testing the panel data with unit root tests and cointegration tests.The results show that the delay retirement can promote the economy and increase jobs.But under the condition of certain elasticity of labor supply,delaying the retirement age will have crowding-out effect on some potential workers.In the short term,there is a real crowding-out effect on the youth employment,but the effect is not obvious and the delay retirement has no marked impact on the middle-age group.Therefore,the delay retirement has no marked impact on the employment in general.