谨防数学方法预测常住人口出生率的偏误

对一项运用数学方法进行上海市2050年前常住人口出生率预测所得结果进行比较分析,提出更优的预测方法.通过线性回归和10种曲线回归模型,使用低生育率阶段的数据,结合人口学方法进行新的预测,总结出可靠性更高的预测方法.预测结果表明,缩小数据范围,并使用人口预测软件,平均预测精度有较大提升,预测准确性更高.研究结果说明:单纯依靠数学方法预测常住人口出生率存在较大局限,不宜多加使用,尤其不适合对人口出生率进行长期预测;回归人口本身的发展规律,依据人口学方法可有效提高预测精度.

Beware of Forecast Errors of the Permanent Population Birth Rate by Using Unapplicable Mathematical Methods

Better forecasting methods were proposed through examining the prediction results of the birth rate of permanent population in Shanghai by 2050.A method of higher reliability was presented by adopting the power function fitting and the corresponding forecasting method is of the least error by comparing with the population birth rate data obtained by the linear regression model and ten kinds of curve regression models.It is found that the average prediction accuracy can be improved by re-forecasting combined with reducing the data scope and using a population prediction software.It is shown that there is a significant limitation to the prediction of permanent population birth rate by using mathematical methods,and it is not suitable for many cases,especially for the prediction of long-term birth rate.In the light of the demography method,recurring to the rule of population development itself can improve the prediction accuracy greatly.