漳州城市建设用地扩张空间分布模拟

首先利用遥感影像分类获取2000～2005年城市建设用地变化图,选取漳州市2005年度DEM、人口密度、城市规划等影响因子数据,通过空间随机采样方式,建立起2000年至2005年城市建设用地扩张空间分布概率多元Logistic回归模型.运用该模型,结合GIS技术和2009年相关影响力因子数据,模拟出2005年至2009年漳州市区城市建设用地空间分布,并与该地区2005年和2009年两个时期扩张实际变化的城市建设用地空间分布进行验证,结果表明模拟较为理想,城市建设用地扩张模拟灵敏度为0.6952.

Spatial distribution simulation of urban construction land expansion in Zhangzhou city

Firstly,the urban land use change map from 2000 to 2005 was obtained by remote sensing images classification,then DEM,population density,city planning data of Zhangzhou city in 2005 were selected as the independent variables,multiple logistic regression model of urban construction land expansion spatial distribution from 2000 to 2005 was constructed by random sampling.Using this model,integrating GIS technology with the relevant data of 2009,this paper simulated spatial distribution of the urban construction land expansion from 2005 to 2009,which was compared with the actual expansion distribution of urban construction land in 2005 and 2009.The results show that the simulation is quite satisfactory and the the simulation accuracy reaches about 70%.