门限自回归模型在喀斯特泉流量模拟中的应用

本文以山西龙子祠泉为例，在阐明泉域过界、确定喀斯特含水系统的补给、径流、排泄 条件的基础上，利用频谱分析及灰色系统理论中的关联度分析方法，提取泉的各种信息，然后建 立了能客观地描述泉流量动态的门限自回归模型．

Application of Threshold Autoregressive Model in Simulation of Karst Spring Discharge Rdgime

On the basis of analysing the spring area boundary and determining the recharge, runoff and drain of karst underground water-bearing system in Longzici spring area, Shanxi province, the essential information is obtained by means or the spectral analysis and the connection degree analysis in Gery System Theory.Furthermore, a threshold autoregressive model, which can describe more realistically the spring discharge regime, is established.