江苏锡山市耕地预警系统研究

依据第二次土壤普查资料、多年土壤监测数据和有关耕地系统状态的统计数据，结合研究区耕地状况的调查分析，建立了耕地预警系统指标体系和预警模型；据此模型进行了锡山市2010年耕地系统的预警分析。结果表明，耕地系统产出能力的稳定性呈下降趋势，加大投入以保持耕地质量的稳定，提高耕地产出水平是该区警情排除的主要对策。

Cultivated Land Early-Warning System of Xishan City, Jiangsu Province

On the basis of the second general soil survey data, long_period soil monitoring data and relevant statistical data of cultivated land condition, integrated with the analysis of cultivated land investigation in typical area, an indicator system and a model of cultivated land early_warning system of Xisha city were set up. According to this model, the analysis of the early_warning for the cultivated land of Xisha city in 2010 shows that the output stability of the cultivated land_system will be decreasing. Increasing the input to keep stability of the cultivated land quality and improving the output of the cultivated land are the key approaches to avoiding the alarming conditions. The establishment of the early_warning index system is a prerequisite for the cultivated land early_warning system to work effectively. This paper makes the cultivated land basic productivity as early_warning index, which extensively covers the driving factors of cultivated land quality. Warning monitor indexes were set up to analyze the causes of alarming conditions and to incarnate the function of the system real_time control. So they can provide the system with early_warning message. Whoever can take administrative action effectively will make sustainable use of cultivated land resourcs. The total dynamic equilibrium of cultivated land can be accomplished in the real sense.