江苏区域旅游发展现状评价研究

江苏全省面积10.26×104km2,2004年末总人口为7432.50万人,行政区划下辖13个省辖市.由于地理位置、历史沿革、自然条件和经济发展等方面的差异,江苏全省通常被分为苏北、苏中和苏南三大区域.从分析旅游产业规模、接待游客人数、旅游收入等方面的实际指标入手,构建了城市旅游发展评价的三级指标体系,并采用层次分析法(AHP)测算指标权重、采用熵技术对权系数进行修正,从而得到相应的区域旅游发展综合评价模型.在此基础上,根据2004年江苏13个省辖市各方面的统计数据进行计算和层次聚类,得出可以将江苏区域旅游发展现状分为5个层级:苏州、南京为第一层级,无锡为第二层级,镇江、常州、扬州为第三层级,南通、徐州、连云港为第四层级,淮安、盐城、泰州、宿迁相对落后为第五层级.

An Evaluation of Regional Tourism Development in Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu province locates in the east coastal area of China, and abuts on the largest economic centre-Shanghai. It is one of the most developed regions in China and has a high rate of per capita GDP. Jiangsu, grouped by 13 cities, had a population of more than 74 325 000 until the end of 2004, and its area is 102 600 km~2. It can be divided into three areas: Northern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and Southern Jiangsu, according to the differences among their locations, history, natural conditions and economy levels, etc. And the economy developing levels of these areas and cities are obviously different. Based on the existing indicators in tourism industry scale, tourism income and number of tourists received, a three-grade indicator system was established to evaluate urban tourism development. An integrated evaluating model for regional tourism development was presented in the paper, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for indicator weight calculation and entropy technologies for indicator weight coefficient modification. According to the model and tourism statistic data hierarchical clustering, regional tourism development of the 13 cities in Jiangsu Province was divided into 5 levels: Suzhou, Nanjing belonging to the first level; Wuxi, second level; Changzhou, Zhenjiang and Yangzhou, third level; Nantong, Liangyungang and Xuzhou, forth level; Huai'an, Yancheng, Taizhou, Suqian, the last.