盆周山区土地利用变化及其驱动因素分析--以四川省雅安市为例

以四川省雅安市为例，在对研究区土地利用的数量、程度变化分析的基础上，构建了该区域土地利用变化驱动因素的指标体系，在指标体系中引入退耕还林政策实施强度值指标．通过运用主因子分析的方法对各指标进行定量分析，建立了区域土地利用变化的驱动机制模型．研究结果表明：经济因素中的财政收入、固定资产投资、城市化发展、退耕还林政策是影响雅安市耕地利用发生变化的主导驱动因素；退耕还林政策和粮食产量是林地面积变化的驱动因素；固定资产投资是未利用土地面积变化的驱动因素．最后，总结了研究区土地利用变化特点及其影响因子，并从调整固定资产投资方向、科学地进行退耕还林工程、合理地调整农业内部土地利用结构以及推进农地流转与集中等方面，就区域土地可持续利用管理，尤其是如何有效协调土地利用变化的生态经济关系，提出了若干政策建议．

Analysis on Land Use Change and Driving Factors in the Mountainous Areas Around Sichuan Province: A Case Study of Ya'an City of Sichuan Province

Mountain areas around Sichuan Province belong to the vulnerable ecological region in the Southwestern area of China. Research on land use changes in this region is significant for sustainable use of land resources and ecological reconstruction. A case on Ya'an City, which is in the mountain areas around Sichuan Province, has been studied with regard to regional land use change and its driving factors. The paper mainly includes two parts. The first part pointed out the changes of quantity and degree about land use in the research region. The second part explained the driving factors of land use changes in the area. By analyzing the situation on land use of Ya'an City, the paper reached the following conclusions. First, the quantity of arable land and unused land decreased during 1996 to 2002 while other land use types all increased in different scope. Second, garden land and traffic land changed at a larger speed. The annual change rate of garden land and traffic land was respectively 6.666% and 5.520%. Then, the change rate of the land use degree was less than zero. So inside changes of agricultural land were the main changes of land use in the City. Only in Mingshan County, land use changed in non-agricultural types. Then, based on the analysis of land use situation, a series of index of driving factors was established in Ya'an City. In particular, the policy of returning arable land to forest, as an important driving factor, was brought into the index series. The main method of component analysis was used to analyze these factors. By quantitative analysis, a driving model of the regional land use change was proposed. The result shows that the regional change on arable land is mainly affected by the fixed financial income, the capital investment, urbanization and the policy of returning arable land to forest. The main driving factors on woodland are the policy of returning cropland to forest and grain output. Capital investment is the main reason for change on unused land. Finally, the characteristics of land use change and its driving factors in Ya'an City were summarized. In order to achieve sustainable land use and management, some suggestions, such as the adjustment of the fixed capital investment, a scientific decision-making about returning arable land to forest, reasonable structure adjustment in agricultural land use and arable land transfer, were put forward.