| 九江年降水时间序列的混沌特性 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏一鸣,孙国栋.九江年降水时间序列的混沌特性[J].江西科学,1998,16(3):141-145. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏一鸣 孙国栋 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室，江西省气候中心，河海大学昆明工学院资源开发系 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对近百年来九江年降水时间序列资料，应用分形理论，探讨了不同嵌入相空间下时间序列关联维的变化规律。计算得到了其饱和关联维数ｄ＝５．０８，最低嵌入维ｍ＝９以及Ｋｏｌｏｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵ｋ＝０．４５２。结果表明，九江年降水时间序列是一混沌序列。从而，为进一步建立年降水预测预报模型奠定了基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 年降水 分形 分维 混沌 |
THE CHAOTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION SERIES IN JIUJIANG |
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| Wei Yiming\ Sun Guodong Hu Pingzhao\ Li Junhua\ Jin Juliang Hehai University,Nanjing PRC.THE CHAOTIC CHARACTERISTICS OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION SERIES IN JIUJIANG[J].Jiangxi Science,1998,16(3):141-145. |
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| Authors: | Wei Yiming\ Sun Guodong Hu Pingzhao\ Li Junhua\ Jin Juliang Hehai University Nanjing PRC |
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| Institution: | Wei Yiming\ Sun Guodong Hu Pingzhao\ Li Junhua\ Jin Juliang Hehai University,Nanjing 210098 PRC |
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| Abstract: | In accordance with the annual precipitation data of the past hundred years in Jiujiang, the fractal theory is applied in investigating the relationship between fractal dimension and the dimension of imbedding space. Its saturation value of relation fractal dimension and the smallest dimension of imbedding space as well as the Kolmologorov entropy are calculated, that is d =5.08 and m =9 as well as K = 0.452 . All those results indicate that the time series of annual precipitation in Jiujiang is a chaotic series. Therefore,the study on chaotic characteristics of annual precipitation will provide a scientific basis for formulating the forecast model of annual precipitation. |
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| Keywords: | Annual precipitation Fractal Fractal dimension Chaotic |
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