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组合模型在港口集装箱吞吐量预测中的应用
引用本文:柳艳娇,肖青.组合模型在港口集装箱吞吐量预测中的应用[J].大连海事大学学报(自然科学版),2006,32(3):26-28.
作者姓名:柳艳娇  肖青
作者单位:大连海事大学交通工程与物流学院 辽宁大连116026
摘    要:根据某港的集装箱吞吐量的历史数据,分别利用时间序列的三次指数平滑法、改进的GM(1,1)残差模型以及组合预测方法对某港的集装箱吞吐量进行了探讨,并对未来几年某港集装箱吞吐量进行了预测.结果证明:组合预测模型融合了前两种预测方法的优点,其平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值以及误差的标准差分别为4.5208,0.0343,49.5161,都小于单独用三次指数平滑法或改进的GM(1,1)残差模型时的平均绝对误差、平均相对误差绝对值以及误差的标准差,达到最优的精度等级.

关 键 词:集装箱吞吐量  三次指数平滑法  GM(1  1)残差模型  组合预测  精度等级
文章编号:1006-7736(2006)03-0026-03
收稿时间:2006-03-22
修稿时间:2006年3月22日

Application of combined model in forecasting container throughput capacity of a harbour
LIU Yan-jiao,XIAO Qing.Application of combined model in forecasting container throughput capacity of a harbour[J].Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2006,32(3):26-28.
Authors:LIU Yan-jiao  XIAO Qing
Abstract:The paper analyzed the container throughput capacity of a harbour by using cubic exponential smoothing,improved remnant difference correct model GM(1,1) and combined forecast method,and forecast the container throughputs of the harbour in the next few years.The result implied that by melting the advantages of the two former forecast method,combined forecast model's mean absolute error,mean relative error and standard deviation are 4.5208,0.0343,49.5161 respectively,less than those when using cubic exponential smoothing or improved remnant difference correct model GM(1,1) respectively, thus the combined forecast model obtained the best precision.
Keywords:container throughput  cubic exponential smoothing  remnant difference correct model GM(1  1)  combined forecast model  accurate grade
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
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