| 我国专用汽车未来发展趋势预测与分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘翠,李冠峰,薛子旺.我国专用汽车未来发展趋势预测与分析[J].河南科学,2010,28(4):481-484. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘翠 李冠峰 薛子旺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河南农业大学,信息与管理科学学院,郑州,450002
2. 河南农业大学机电工程学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了中国专用汽车的发展现状,以1998年来我国专用汽车发展的数据为基础,运用指数平滑模型和GM(1,1)模型,对我国未来几年专用汽车需求量进行了预测,结果表明,我国的专用汽车将持续快速发展,到2010年专用汽车的需求超过100万辆.预测结果的使用对于保证专用车的供需协调,避免因规划指标失控而导致投资决策失误,有着重要的指导作用.
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| 关 键 词： | 专用汽车 指数平滑模型 GM(1 1)模型 预测 |
Forecasting and Analyzing the Future Development Trend of Special Purpose Vehicle in China |
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| Liu Cui,Li Guanfeng,Xue Ziwang.Forecasting and Analyzing the Future Development Trend of Special Purpose Vehicle in China[J].Henan Science,2010,28(4):481-484. |
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| Authors: | Liu Cui Li Guanfeng Xue Ziwang |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 2. College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the development situation of special purpose vehicle in China and predicts the demand for the next few years with the exponential smoothing model and the GM （1,1） model, according to the actual data of special purpose vehicle production in China since 1998. The results show that the special purpose vehicle industry of China will keep on rapidly developing, and the demands will surpass 1 million in 2010. The predictive result will play an important guiding role in coordinating the supply and demand of special purpose vehicle and avoiding the mistakes in investment decision-making caused by out of control. |
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| Keywords: | special purpose vehicle the exponential smoothing model the GM（1 1） model prediction |
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