| 我国人均水资源量的灰色-加权Markov动态预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 乔松珊,孙成金,张建军.我国人均水资源量的灰色-加权Markov动态预测分析[J].河南科学,2014(11):2332-2336. |
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| 作者姓名： | 乔松珊 孙成金 张建军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中原工学院信息商务学院,郑州,450007
2. 河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州,450002 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(U1204104)；河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 引入灰精度指标,基于加权马尔可夫链理论对灰色模型进行改进,并以2000—2011年我国人均水资源量为基础,建立预测模型进行实证分析.结果表明,与传统的灰色预测相比,平均相对误差由15.94%降低为4.05%,较好地提高了预测的精度.
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| 关 键 词： | 加权马尔可夫链 人均水资源 随机波动 预测 |
Trend Analysis of Per Capita Water Resources in China Based on Gray-Weighted Markov Dynamic Model |
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| Qiao Songshan,Sun Chengjin,Zhang Jianjun.Trend Analysis of Per Capita Water Resources in China Based on Gray-Weighted Markov Dynamic Model[J].Henan Science,2014(11):2332-2336. |
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| Authors: | Qiao Songshan Sun Chengjin Zhang Jianjun |
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| Institution: | Qiao Songshan, Sun Chengjin, Zhang Jianjun ( 1. College of Information and Business, Zhongyuan Institute of Technology, Zhengzhou 450007, China; 2. College of Information and Management Science, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China) |
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| Abstract: | The Grey precision index and improved Grey model was introduced based on the weighted Markovtheory. The weighted Markov correction model was built based on the per capita water resources in China from 2000 to2011. Compared with the traditional grey prediction,the test results show that the average relative error is reducedfrom 15.94% to 4.05%,and the prediction accuracy is obviously improved. |
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| Keywords: | weighted Markov chain per capita available water resources random fluctuation prediction |
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