| 中期数值预报产品对一次初夏孟湾风暴强降水的预报检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 焦泽红,和卫东,解明恩,孙秀芬.中期数值预报产品对一次初夏孟湾风暴强降水的预报检验[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),2011(Z1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 焦泽红 和卫东 解明恩 孙秀芬 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南大学大气科学系;云南省丽江市气象局;云南省气象局;云南省玉溪市气象局; |
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| 摘 要： | 应用欧洲数值预报中心数值预报产品对2004年云南丽江第1场区域性强降水过程进行主要影响系统的预报效果检验,同时取水汽通量、垂直速度及K指数3个中国T213数值预报的物理量产品对这次过程作进一步的预报检验,结果表明:造成强降水的孟湾风暴及冷空气活动,欧洲中心可提前5天较准确地预报出,T213上述3个物理量场也有一定的预报效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 强降水 孟湾风暴 数值产品 效果检验 |
Inspection on prediction effect of an early summer rainfall process caused by the storm of Bay of Bengal using the mid-term numerical prediction |
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| JIAO Ze-hong,HE Wei-dong,XIE Ming-en,SUN Xiu-fen.Inspection on prediction effect of an early summer rainfall process caused by the storm of Bay of Bengal using the mid-term numerical prediction[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences),2011(Z1). |
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| Authors: | JIAO Ze-hong HE Wei-dong XIE Ming-en SUN Xiu-fen |
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| Institution: | JIAO Ze-hong1,2,HE Wei-dong2,XIE Ming-en3,SUN Xiu-fen1,4(1.Dpartment of Atmospheric Science,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China,2.Meteorological Bureau of Lijiang,Lijiang 674100,3.Meteorological Bureau of Yunnan,Kunming 650034,4.Meteorological Bureau of Yuxi,Yuxi 653100,China) |
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| Abstract: | Using the numerical prediction product provided by ECMWF,prediction effect of the main influencing system which caused the first heavy precipitation process in Lijiang of Yunnan in 2004 was tested.After that,three styles of physical products called that moisture flux,vertical velocity and the K index that offered by T213 were also inspected.The results show that the forming of storm of Bay of Bengal and coming of cold air caused heavy precipitation is forecasted by ECMWF before 5 days,three physical factor ... |
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| Keywords: | the heavy precipitation process Storm of Bay of Bengal numerical prediction product effect inspection |
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