近51年海河流域气候变化特征分析

在全球变暖的背景下,海河流域作为我国重要工农业生产地,气候正在发生重大变化.利用1960年-2010年海河流域30个气象站点的气温和降水资料,将每个站点的气温和降水量展布到全流域,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验和小波分析等方法分析海河流域气候的变化特征.结果表明：海河流域气温呈明显上升趋势,其中西部和东部明显高于南部和北部,年平均气温在1988年发生突变,气温变化存在7a和10～15a2个周期;整个流域的降水量呈下降趋势,其中北部的内蒙古地区和河南的北部地区降水减少趋势最为明显,降水量在1997年发生突变,降水变化存在5～7 a和10～15 a 2个周期.

Climate change characteristics of Haihe River Basin in recent 51 years

As a major grain and industry production area of China, the climate of Haihe River Basin is undergoing great changes under the background of global warming. Using the temperature and precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations in Haihe River Basin from 1960 to 2010, the temperature and precipitation level of every station was distributed to the whole basin, the climate variation characteristics of Haihe River Basin was analyzed using linear regression, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, moving T test and wavelet analysis method. The results show that the temperature of Haihe River Basin presented obviously increasing trend, especially in the east and west, temperature changed suddenly in 1988, and the temperature changes existed two periods with 5-10 years and 10-15 years. The precipitation level of whole basin presented decreasing trend, especially in Inner Mongolia and the north of Henan province, the precipitation level changed suddenly in 1997, and the precipitation level changes existed two periods with 5-7 years and 10-15 years.