山东省农业生态环境脆弱度及可持续发展研究

根据山东省农业脆弱生态环境的特点，以人均水资源、森林覆盖率、人均耕地面积、水土流失、干燥指数、农药使用量、化肥使用量、人均GDP、农民人均收入、恩格尔系数、人口密度、文盲率、高等教育率等作为评价指标，利用层次分析法分配各指标权重，通过模糊综合评判模型运算和隶属度分析，将山东省农业脆弱生态环境分为较严重脆弱、中等脆弱、一般脆弱、无脆弱4个等级．评判结果表明：山东省农业生态环境属于中等脆弱等级，如不加以改善，必将严重影响山东省的农业可持续发展．因此，针对出现的问题，本文相应提出了必要的防范措施，以引领山东省农业生态环境继续走可持续发展之路．

Study on the Fragile and Sustainable Development Capacity of Agricultural Environment in Shandong Province

According to the feature of agriculture fragile environment in Shandong,makes sure the 13 evaluation indexs including per capita water resources,covered by forests ,per capita cultivated areas, soil erosion,arid index, quantity of pesticide,quantity of fertilizer,per capita GDP, per capita income of farmer ,Engels coefficient, population density ,proportion of high education and so on. And the weighs of each index influencing agricultural fragile environment is determined with analytical hierarchy process method. Calculated by the model of the Fuzzy synthetic evaluation, the agricultural fragile environment in Shandong province is classified into serious fragility, moderate fragility, gentile fragility and none fragility. The result make clear that agriculture of environment of Shandong province belongs to moderate fragility. If it is not improved, it will induce to serious influence on the sustainable development capacity of agriculture of shandong, so,Aiming directly at above problems,this essay raises necessary steps to continue to the sustainable development capacity of agriculture environment of Shandong province.