转轨时期中国货币政策传导机制的实证

运用协整检验与基于VAR模型的格兰杰因果检验对1994-2002年货币渠道和银行信贷渠道对宏观经济的影响进行分析,并采用最小二乘法对这两种渠道对宏观经济的影响程度进行比较研究.实证结果表明货币渠道与银行信贷渠道都在货币政策传导中发挥着重要作用,相对而言,银行信贷渠道对宏观经济的影响更大,在货币政策传导中占主导地位.

The Empirical Study of Monetary Transmission Mechanism in China During the Transformed Period

This paper follows the Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Vector Auto-regression Model to estimate the impacts of monetary channel and bank-lending channel on macro-economy respectively and investigates the different effects of the two channels on the latter using the OLS during the 1994 - 2002 sample period in which the monetary policy was transformed from being directly-controlled to being indirectly-controlled by the central bank in China. The result shows that the monetary channel and the bank-lending channel are both the important channels of Chinese monetary transmission, while the impact of latter on macro-economy is stronger. So the bank-lending channel plays a dominant role in the monetary transmission in China. Policy implications are made in the conclusion.