大型发输电组合系统可靠性评估的Monte—Carlo法

本文提出了一种大型发输电组合系统可靠性评估的Monte-Carlo方法。它基于分散抽样技术、缺电功率分析法和最小缺电功率优化模型的结合,不仅计算比较快速,而且也有较高精度;在系统元件增加时,计算量只呈线性增长,因而特别适于大系统;对故障状态的抽样模拟,比确定性枚举更接近电力系统运行中故障发生的实际情况。而且方法很容易推广到计及元件的多状态、负荷的多水平及负荷的随机分布特性。文中给出了IEEE-RTS系统的计算结果,并与其它两种方法的结果作了比较。

THE MONTE-CARLO METHOD FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF LARGE SCALE COMPOSITE GENERETION-TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS

The paper presents a Monte-carlo method for reliability evaluation of large scale composite generation transmission systems. The method, which possesses coputational rapidity and sufficient accuracy,is based on combining the dispersed sampling techique with the analysis approach and the optimization model of power not supplied. Because the amount of calculation increases only linearly with, the number of elements, it is specially sui- table for large scale systems. The Monte-carlo sampling draws more near the real situation than determinate state enumeration in simulating occurrence of power system outages. Also, the method can be easily generalized to involve multi-states of elements, multi-levels and stochastic distribution of loads. The results of IEEE-RTS, as example, are given and compared with ones obtained by using the other two methods.