中国新股短期投资回报探讨

初始报酬率与短期回报是两个完全不同的概念.当预期年投资回报时,应以短期回报为基准,而非初始报酬.以投资收益率基本定义为出发点,在充分考虑了新股申购过程的申购成本之后,给出了新股短期投资回报率的计算方法.通过实证分析,认为中国的新股投资存在超额报酬.但是受到中签率的影响,只有资金规模达到一定程度以上的投资者才会获得该超额报酬.研究结果不仅对散户撤出一级市场的现象给出了解释,还从侧面证明了中国投资者是理性的.

Short-term Return of New Share in China

Initial return and short-term return are two totally different conceptions. When the anticipated year return is evaluated, we should stand on the conception of short-term return not the initial return. Based on the primary conception of the investment return, and considering the cost of purchasing, this paper gives the method of calculating the rate of short-term return. After the experienced analyses, we think there is excess return in the primary market. However, influenced by the low hit rate, only those investors, whose capital over some limit, can get it. The result explains the phenomena that why little investors leave the primary market for the secondary market. From the other way, the result proves that the investors are rational.