| 中国外汇储备变动趋势及影响因素分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张鹏,向家敏.中国外汇储备变动趋势及影响因素分析[J].重庆大学学报(自然科学版),2006,29(11):160-163. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张鹏 向家敏 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]重庆大学贸易与行政学院,重庆400030 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过选取1984—2004年的统计数据，对影响中国外汇储备适度规模的因素进行回归分析后发现：经常项目差额、资本项目差额及实际GDP的变动与中国外汇储备需求呈正相关，统计性显著；同时也得出年均汇率与外汇储备需求有着显著的负相关性、外债余额与外汇储备需求不相关的结论．并结合实际情况分析了我国外汇储备需求的变动趋势以及与各显著性解释变量之间的相互作用关系．
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| 关 键 词： | 外汇储备 国际收支 国内生产总值 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-582X（2006）11-0160-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-25 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-25 |
Trend of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves Fluctuation and Influencing Factors |
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| ZHANG Peng,XIANG Jia-min.Trend of China''s Foreign Exchange Reserves Fluctuation and Influencing Factors[J].Journal of Chongqing University(Natural Science Edition),2006,29(11):160-163. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Peng XIANG Jia-min |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Economicis and Business Administration;2. College of Trade and Public Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030,China |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of statistic data from 1984 to 2004 and regression analysis of influencing factors of foreign exchange reserves(FER),this article comes to the conclusion: current accounts,capital accounts,real GD Pshow remarkable positive correlation with the demand of FER,and exchange rate shows inverse correlation with the demand of FER,while foreign loans balance and FER show little correlation.On addition,the article analyzs the trend of(China's) FER fluctuation and clarifies the interaction of the trend and remarkable interpretative variables. |
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| Keywords: | foreign exchange reserves balance of payments GDP |
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