城市化背景下中国虚拟水流动空间变化特征及其驱动因素研究

为了解决日益增涨的水资源需求导致的缺水问题, 从投入产出视角进行合理的虚拟水调动已成为缓解地区水资源压力的新途径。基于1997 年与2010年区域间投入产出表以及水资源公报数据, 构建虚拟水多区域投入产出计算模型, 并细化用水产业, 计算得出区域间虚拟水相互交换关系与转移量。同时, 将区域虚拟水空间流动量与区域间人口迁移和产业转移特征进行关联分析, 结果表明, 研究时段的中国城市化进程中, 虚拟水主要由内陆地区向沿海地区输送, 且区域间人口迁移特征与虚拟水空间转移特征的关联性很强。人口流动带动消费品转移, 进而引起虚拟水流动, 产业空间转移通过生产要素的空间转移与聚集, 持续影响虚拟水的流动量和流动方向。因此, 基于中国城市化特征, 未来区域发展应考虑结合实体水调动以及虚拟水流动与人口迁移和产业转移的关联关系, 保证经济活动密集区域的水资源供给。

Study on Characteristics of Virtual Water Flow Spatial Change and Influencing Factors in China

Population migration and aggregation of industrial factories in the process of urbanization in China has further increased water demand in the relatively developed areas of China. The existing water transfer projects couldn’t meet the increasing demand for water resources in water-scarce areas. The calculation of virtual water based on the input-output analysis and the implementation of reasonable virtual water transfer have become new approaches to relax the demanding pressure on regional water resources. This analysis used the regional inputoutput tables of the years 1997 and 2010 and the water resources bulletins of China to build a multi-regional inputoutput calculation model of virtual water and calculate the exchange relationships and transfer volumes among virtual waters of different industries in detail. This study also analyzed the association of regional virtual water flows with inter-regional population migration and geographic transfers of industries. The results showed that there were highly correlated relationships between the characteristics of regional population migration and virtual water spatial transfer in the context of urbanization in China. The geographic transfers of industries continue to affect the volume and direction of virtual water flows. In the future, researchers should consider the relationship between physical water transfers, virtual water flows, population migration and geographic transfers of industries in the context of urbanization to ensure the supply of water resources in China.