农村环境多主体仿真系统建构——-农户模型在农村环境管理中的应用

针对我国农村环境研究现状和农户模型在农村环境分析中的问题, 借助基于复杂适应系统理论的多主体建模技术, 使用Swarm 工具开发了适用于我国农村经济- 环境评估的SFRE 系统, 能有效集成计量经济学、统计学和污染物排放模型, 并通过“虚拟农户”这一微观主体来涌现宏观现象。阐述了5 个主要的模型假设和系统主体规则,并简要概述了生产、消费、社会环境和环境评估4个子系统的设计方法。此方法是多主体建模用于研究完整的农村经济系统和评价农村环境变化的率先尝试。

Construction of Rural Environment Multi-Agent Simulation System: Application of Agricultural Household Model on Rural Environmental Management

In view of the problems happened in China rural environment and the usage of agricultural household model to analyze rural environment, this research developed a Chinese rural economy-environment evaluation system,SFRE, based on the complex adaptive system theory with the aid of Swarm Tool. The SFRE system, which integrated econometrics, statistics and the pollutant discharge model effectively, could emerge the macroscopic phenomenon by the activities of microscopic agents-"the virtual agricultural household". Besides, the authors elaborated five main model assumptions and the agent rules, and summarized the designing approaches about four subsystems of the rural production, consumption, social environment and environmental assessment. It is an initiative attempt as a multi-agent based model for studying the rural economics completely and assessing rural environmental changes.