南海潜在海啸源危险性的定量分析

利用COMCOT模型, 分析马尼拉海沟一个潜在海啸源的危险性。通过改变震级和震源深度两个海啸初始场信息, 揭示海啸登陆中国沿海地区时的首波波幅与二者的定量关系。结果表明: 震源深度对首波波幅的影响幅度可以达到50%, 地震震级不同, 震源深度对首波波幅的影响趋势也不同; 海啸登陆时的首波波幅基本上随着震级的增加而加大, 但由于海啸波会与近岸的反射波互相叠加, 可能导致在海啸传播至近岸过程中首波登陆波幅异常减小; 震级达到Mw 8.6时, 海啸等级为1级, 部分沿海地区会遭受海啸威胁。

Quantitative Analysis of Potential Tsunami Hazard in the South China Sea

The COMCOT model was used to analyze the potential hazards of the tsunami source in ManilaTrench. By changing the information of the two tsunami initial fields — magnitude and source depth, the quantitativerelationship between the first wave amplitude and the two is revealed when the tsunami landed in China’s coastalareas. The results show that the influence amplitude of different focal depths on the amplitude of the first wave canreach 50%. With the different magnitude of earthquake, the influence of the focal depth on the amplitude of thefirst wave is also different. The amplitude of the first wave of the tsunami landing basically increases with themagnitude. However, during the process of the tsunami spreading to the near shore, the tsunami wave will overlapwith the reflection wave near the shore, which may cause the first wave landing amplitude to decrease abnormally.When the magnitude reach Mw 8.6, the tsunami level is 1 and some coastal areas will be threatened by tsunami.