电动汽车替代燃油车的气候和健康影响及社会成本——基于单车视角的成本效益分析

构建基于能源周期和全生命周期的分析框架, 借助基于概率分布的成本效益分析方法, 通过评估单辆纯电动汽车替代汽油车的气候和健康影响及相关社会成本, 探讨现阶段电动汽车替代传统燃油车能否实现气候、健康和社会福利的改进。研究结果表明, 在现有技术条件和电厂超低排放改造背景下, 尽管电动汽车替代传统燃油车在能源周期能够实现碳减排(约324元/(辆^.年))、健康损害降低(约343元/(辆^.年))以及可观的能源节约(约4315元/(辆^.年)), 但由于两种车辆之间巨大的制造成本差异(约1.6万元/(辆^.年)), 现阶段电动汽车对传统燃油车的全面替代并不能实现社会总体福利的改进。因此, 中国电动汽车推广政策短期内不应以全面替代为目标, 而应识别具有较高气候和健康效益以及具有较大能源节约潜力的区域优先推广。

Climate,Health Impacts,and Social Costs of Electric Vehicles in China: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

By applying the probabilistic benefit-cost analysis with Monte Carlo simulation, this study reveals the energy- and life-cycle climate and pollution-related health impacts, and various social costs in China of gasoline-to-electric vehicle (GV-to-EV) substitutions. Key factors influencing these estimates are also elicited. Results indicate that a GV-to-EV substitution can annually achieve benefits of 324 yuan on climate, 343 yuan on health, and 4315 yuan on energy savings in the energy cycle under current technical conditions and the dynamics of power grid development. However, these benefits are offset by the incremental manufacturing cost (16000 yuan/car-year), and the social welfare improvement over the life cycle is negative in the short run. This study highlights the importance of prioritizing GV-to-EV substitutions only in areas with high health, climate, and energy-saving benefits.