中国交通运输碳排放影响因素研究——基于双层次计量模型分析

构建中国交通运输碳排放总量层次和强度层次影响因素模型, 使用Johansen协整分析和误差修正模型等计量模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明, 交通运输碳排放主要受经济发展水平、交通运输结构、运输装备能效水平、运输组织水平和基础设施密度等因素影响。实证结果显示, 国内生产总值、铁路运输占比、乘用车燃料消耗量、百人电话拥有量和公路路网长度对交通运输碳排放影响的弹性系数分别为0.74%, -2.60%, 2.01%, -0.68%和0.17%。因此, 在经济正常发展情景下, 提升铁路等低碳运输方式的比例, 推进降低传统汽车燃油消耗水平, 推广纯电动汽车等新能源汽车, 加快智慧交通发展, 有助于控制交通运输碳排放水平。

Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Transportation in China: Empirical Analysis Based on Two-level Econometrics Method

This study constructs a two-level influence factor model on the carbon emission amount and intensity of China’s transport sector. Econometric methods including Johansen co-integration analysis and error correction model are used for empirical analysis. The results show that the transport sector’s emissions are mainly affected by factors including economic development level, transport sector structure, transportation equipment energy efficiency, transportation management, infrastructure system intensity and so forth. Empirical analysis shows that the impact elastic coefficients of gross domestic product, proportion of railway transport, vehicle fuel consumption, telephone ownership rate per one hundred people and road network length are 0.74%, -2.60%, 2.01%, -0.68% and 0.17% respectively. Under business as usual scenario in terms of economic development, increasing the proportion of low-carbon transportation modes such as railway, lowering fuel consumption of conventional vehicles, promoting new-energy vehicles and accelerating the development of smart transportation can all contribute to controlling the amount of carbon emissions from the transport sector.